Recent trends in the Tropical Pacific Climate Patterns are now indicating early stages of a developing El Niño. Most of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) computer forecasts are supporting the development of an El Nino episode occurring in middle or towards the end of 2009 if these conditions continue to persist.ENSO indicators such as the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is about 0.5°C warmer than normal and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped from +9 in May to -8 in May. Another indicator, the trade winds has been suppressed across the Pacific during the month of May.
In the Solomon Islands, El Nino event is always associated with below normal rainfall and according to the 3 months rainfall outlook, most of the Provinces rainfall is likely to be normal to below normal for the period - May, June and July. Already, according to the Meteorological drought analysis for the Solomon Islands, 15.2% level of warning is now in place for Munda (Western Province).
The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation and people who depends very much on rainwater should now start planning their water usage and listen out for further updates.