The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service has predicted a single tropical cyclone for Solomon Islands for the period between November 2013 and April 2014.
A statement from the SI Met Services explained that the “El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which has been indicated by the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Central and Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmospheric circulations over Tahiti and Darwin, Australia is still in neutral condition.”
This means a near normal Tropical Cyclone activity is likely for the season between November 2013 and April 2014, which means only one tropical cyclone activity is likely for Solomon Islands for the season while eight others are likely for the Southwest Pacific region.
The Met Service statement also explained that in Solomon Islands, the tropical cyclone season is from November to April, however, cyclone peaks during the month of January and February.
Cyclones can also occur during other months before November and after April but with lower risks. On average, one or two cyclones form in Solomon Islands each year.
Although the El Nino Southern Oscillation is a significant contributor to the year to year variability in tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific Ocean, it does not have great influence on the cyclone frequency occurring in Solomon Islands.
Press Release: GCU